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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – NEW SIGNALS & COMMENTS
U.S. Stocks appear to be at an important Short-term/Tactical turning point within an ongoing Intermediate-Term correction.
Weekly Sell signals remain active – a multi-week/multi-month correction is likely still in progress.
If a bounce develops, it should ultimately fail – an updated chart review suggests key levels to consider adjusting risk exposure.
China remains in a confirmed NEW Bull Market – this week’s price action was a classic continuation Buy signal.
We’ll cover some key Chinese Stocks that continue to hold my attention.
Bond Yields & Volatility remain in an uptrend and have room to move significantly higher.
We’ll cover potential projections & scenarios I’ve been tracking for the past few months.
The Dollar is in an uptrend after launching from a multi-month base.
Precious Metals & Miners may need to pause/consolidate for a while.
SECTION 1:
CORE MODELS & DATA
Core Risk was extremely oversold and turned UP on Monday.
As shared last week, the model plunged since triggering Sell mid/late March – one of the fastest drops in history.
With this turn UP confirmed, look for “a” bottom and potential sharp retracement bounce lasting ideally 1-2 weeks.
It’s possible this was “the” bottom and Stocks will now rally back to the highs – however I consider this a lower-probability scenario, and will present charts as to why.
Further, Weekly Sell signals remain active – a multi-week/multi-month correction is likely still in progress.
Another possibility: the current sequence could play out similar to the Buy signals in the correction that ended last October (see chart below).
Either way: Short-term odds are likely skewed higher.
Later in this report, we’ll cover potential key chart levels to consider adjusting risk exposure.
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