Thank you. Us Canadians just celebrated July 1 Canada day... Enjoy the quiet day. I follow a lot of different sources, and subscribe to very little. Your thoughtful, high level assessments are some of the best I have seen, without too much narrative. Very much appreciate you sharing this knowledge and view.
Will it come from a classic fundamental deterioration and thus a Bull Steepener, or from the short-end staying anchored while the long-end worries about increasing deficits even as conditions worsen (Bear Steepener)? Trillion dollar question, will be fascinating to watch this unfold.
I agree most investors still feel like were in the same investing world of the last 20-30 years, but I truly think things have changed. In previous cycles the bull steepener would be what we would expect, but imo because inflation is the catalyst I think its the bear steepener that un inverts the curve and gets rates high enough to the point that the economy contracts. This is why I love markets they never stay boring and you're always waiting for the next climatic move.
It looks like liquidity is starting to turn on the margin as crypto looks extremely soft, but equities continue to shrug this signal off for now. The stubbornness of equity bulls to look around for potential risk is a little mind blowing to be honest. Because this has gotten so silly I fear we may be entering an important top in equities that may trap investors for years to come.
Happy 4th of July to you and your family!
Same, happy 4th to you and yours!
Happy 4th of July
Same, happy 4th to you!
Thank you. Us Canadians just celebrated July 1 Canada day... Enjoy the quiet day. I follow a lot of different sources, and subscribe to very little. Your thoughtful, high level assessments are some of the best I have seen, without too much narrative. Very much appreciate you sharing this knowledge and view.
Think historically — what causes the Yield curve to finally dis-invert?
Would be great listening to your take on this one
Will it come from a classic fundamental deterioration and thus a Bull Steepener, or from the short-end staying anchored while the long-end worries about increasing deficits even as conditions worsen (Bear Steepener)? Trillion dollar question, will be fascinating to watch this unfold.
I agree most investors still feel like were in the same investing world of the last 20-30 years, but I truly think things have changed. In previous cycles the bull steepener would be what we would expect, but imo because inflation is the catalyst I think its the bear steepener that un inverts the curve and gets rates high enough to the point that the economy contracts. This is why I love markets they never stay boring and you're always waiting for the next climatic move.
How do you call lower short end due to fundamental deterioration while higher long end as deficits increase further and they lose control?
Not sure, we'll see. All we can do for now is, as a steepener gains momentum, it tends to continue for quite a while. So follow the trend...
Not sure either but the deglobalisation of capital flows makes it prob more likely than in the past
Can you kindly add the Copper and Commodities charts and views this weekend , if it is interesting, thanks vm
It looks like liquidity is starting to turn on the margin as crypto looks extremely soft, but equities continue to shrug this signal off for now. The stubbornness of equity bulls to look around for potential risk is a little mind blowing to be honest. Because this has gotten so silly I fear we may be entering an important top in equities that may trap investors for years to come.